Northern Regions Lead the Way in Residential Price Forecasts
Northern Regions Lead the Way in Residential Price Forecasts
In March, leading property consultants Savills published their outlook for the rest of 2020 on the back of the coronavirus crisis. It’s fair to say a lot has happened since then, but a recent publication of revised figures stand by northern England as the outstanding UK investment location.
| Region | 5-year Forecast |
| North West | 24.2% |
| Yorkshire and Humber | 21.1% |
| Scotland | 20.1% |
| North East | 19.9% |
| East Midlands | 18.4% |
| West Midlands | 18.3% |
| Wales | 17.7% |
| South West | 12.9% |
| South East and East | 10.7% |
| London | 4% |
| UK | 15.1% |
Just look at these figures; the North West and Yorkshire head up the table with growth forecasts 9.1% and 6% above the UK average respectively. This is incredibly good news given the unprecedented uncertainty over the last few months.
It’s true to say that the impact of Coronavirus has been hard and widely felt, but the effects are predicted to be short term only. Savills UK wide revised year-on-year growth figures represent this with an interesting twist. Let’s look at the November 2019 figures compared with the recent revisions…
| Year | November 2019 Forecast | NEW Forecast |
| 2020 | 1% | -7.5% |
| 2021 | 4.5% | 5% |
| 2022 | 3% | 8% |
| 2023 | 3% | 5% |
| 2024 | 3% | 4.5% |
Source: Savills Research | Note: These forecasts apply to average prices in the second hand market. New Build values may not move at the same rate.
We can see from this that the hit to near-term price growth is severe but only affects this year. After 2020, growth is forecast to rise at a higher rate than originally predicted back in November last year. What does this mean for investors? Buy sooner rather than later to make the most of low prices before they pick up again.
Let’s look at the two northern regions more closely:
| Year | North West | Yorkshire and Humber |
| 2020 | -7.5% | 7.5% |
| 2021 | 8.5% | 3% |
| 2022 | 9% | 10% |
| 2023 | 7% | 8% |
| 2024 | 6% | 7% |
Source: Savills Research | Note: These forecasts apply to average prices in the second hand market. New Build values may not move at the same rate.
After the initial 2020 dip we can see huge forecasted gains over the forthcoming years, with figures reaching as high as 10% and 8.5% in single years. It’s important to note that in spite of the predicted drop in values, the total growth figures over five years for all regions represent the same total figures as the November 2019 report. Essentially, Savills are standing by their original prediction but suggesting a significant surge after the effects of lock-down wear off into 2021.
A separate Savills report references a recent recovery in sales across the new and second hand markets. Overall, agreed sales in the first and second week of June were up 6% and 17% respectively year on year, likely because of mortgage affordability and pent-up demand due to the inability to view and survey homes during lockdown.
Here at Aspen Woolf we specialise in offering prime investment opportunities accross the UK, but with a special focus on northern England. For example, we have an excellent selection of portfolio opportunities in Leeds.
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